@Article{ChaiMaNoVoChDo:2021:CoAmLa,
               author = "Chai, Yuanfang and Martins, Guilherme and Nobre, Carlos Afonso and 
                         Von Randow, Celso and Chen, Tiexi and Dolman, Han",
          affiliation = "{Free University Amsterdam} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Nanjing University of Science and 
                         Technology} and {Free University Amsterdam}",
                title = "Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to 
                         precipitation and the probability of forest dieback",
              journal = "NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "4",
               number = "1",
                pages = "e6",
                month = "Dec.",
             abstract = "The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is 
                         consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points 
                         of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few 
                         observational studies that showed increased mortality after the 
                         severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse 
                         depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously 
                         deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how 
                         the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. 
                         Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air 
                         temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on 
                         the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in 
                         precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to 
                         significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or 
                         dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario 
                         RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the 
                         twenty-first century.",
                  doi = "10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1",
                 issn = "2397-3722",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "chai_constraining.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}